After several months of price and inventory decline, a cyclical upturn in some economic sectors could provide the basis for more sustained recovery in 2003. That favourable hypothesis will nonetheless remain dependent on an investment recovery, itself reliant on industrialist expectations and company financial stabilisation.
Meanwhile, both macro- and micro-economic uncertainties have continued to undermine the timid recovery registered in the most cyclical sectors and dampen the dynamism of economic sectors less exposed to fluctuations in economic conditions.
Pharmaceuticals and mass distribution, two sectors relatively untouched by cyclical fluctuations, have continued to trend upward overall despite increasing pressure on margins.
Recovery in more cyclical sectors like electronics, chemicals, paper, or even mechanical engineering should develop progressively and will remain dependent on recovery of investment and, more broadly, of world demand.
