UNCTAD warns global goods trade growth could slow to 1.5%

Global goods trade growth could slow sharply in 2026 as geopolitical disruption, tariffs and higher energy costs weigh on cross-border commerce.

UNCTAD’s (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development) latest trade update points to a weakening outlook after relatively strong trade growth at the end of 2025 and early 2026. The agency’s data showed global trade remained resilient in the first quarter, but the forward picture is becoming more difficult.

The warning matters for trade finance because slower goods trade usually means weaker transaction growth, tighter margins and more caution from banks supporting importers and exporters.

The pressure is not coming from one source. Tariff uncertainty, energy disruption, sanctions enforcement and fragmented supply chains are all increasing the cost and complexity of moving goods.

For SMEs, the impact can be sharper. Smaller exporters often have less bargaining power, thinner liquidity buffers and fewer financing options when payment cycles lengthen.

A slower trade environment can also increase credit risk. If buyers delay orders or stretch payment terms, suppliers may need more receivables finance and short-term working capital just as lenders become more selective.

The update reinforces a pattern already visible across the market. Global trade is still moving, but it is becoming more expensive, more regional and more exposed to policy shocks.

For finance providers, the challenge will be supporting viable trade while managing higher operational, compliance and counterparty risk.