Black Sea grain squeeze cuts Ukraine exports 75% as wheat nears three-year high

Wheat prices have risen towards three-year highs as attacks on Russian and Ukrainian export infrastructure choke Black Sea grain flows at the start of the region’s peak shipping season, increasing financing and inventory pressure across one of the world’s most important agricultural trade corridors.

Ukraine’s grain exports in August are running about 75% below the same period last year, according to government data cited by the Financial Times. Russia is also struggling to move its harvest, with SovEcon now expecting exports of about 2.2m tonnes this month compared with 4.6m tonnes in August 2025.

The disruption has intensified on both sides of the Black Sea. Russian attacks have brought shipments through major Ukrainian ports close to a standstill, while Ukrainian strikes forced all three major grain terminals at Russia’s Novorossiysk port to halt operations. SovEcon estimates that Russian Black Sea and Azov export capacity has fallen from around 3.3m tonnes a month to approximately 250,000 tonnes through the remaining operating facility at Tuapse.

The timing magnifies the working-capital impact. Winter wheat harvesting is well advanced, meaning grain is arriving at storage sites just as exporters’ ability to move it to international buyers is constrained.

Ukraine had already warned that storage capacity could fall around 11m tonnes short as this year’s harvest accumulates. Around 90% of its wheat, maize and sunflower exports normally move through Black Sea ports, while attacks in July and early August sharply reduced export capacity.

For agricultural borrowers, delayed exports stretch the period between paying for seed, fertiliser, fuel and harvesting and collecting cash from overseas buyers. Grain held for longer also increases the importance of warehouse capacity, collateral monitoring and inventory-backed borrowing lines.

Trade financiers face a separate set of risks. Delivery delays can force amendments to letters of credit, while changing routes can alter freight costs, insurance requirements and documentary terms. Commodity lenders financing stored crop may also find borrowing bases expanding precisely when the underlying exporter is struggling to generate cash.

This is now a bilateral interruption of major Russian and Ukrainian agricultural export capacity during harvest season.