UNCTAD warns geopolitical shocks continue to threaten global trade

The global economy remains vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, energy market disruption and financial instability despite signs of resilience in early 2026, according to a new assessment from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The organisation said stronger industrial activity and investment have supported growth in several regions, but warned that underlying risks remain elevated. Ongoing conflicts, trade restrictions and financial market volatility continue to create uncertainty for businesses involved in international commerce.

For trade finance providers, the warning reinforces concerns that economic conditions can change rapidly even when headline growth indicators appear stable. Exporters and importers remain exposed to shipping disruption, commodity price volatility and shifting trade policies that can affect working capital requirements.

The report also highlights the growing role of geopolitical considerations in commercial decision-making. Businesses increasingly need to assess political developments alongside traditional market risks when planning investment, sourcing and financing strategies.

Smaller firms are particularly vulnerable because they often have fewer financing options and less flexibility to absorb unexpected costs. Delayed payments, longer shipping times and rising inventory requirements can quickly place pressure on liquidity.

Banks and insurers are responding by strengthening risk assessment processes and expanding monitoring of sectors exposed to geopolitical tension. Demand for trade credit insurance, political risk cover and structured trade finance solutions has remained resilient as companies seek additional protection against uncertainty.

While global trade continues to grow, the report suggests that growth is becoming more uneven and increasingly influenced by policy decisions, security concerns and strategic competition between major economies.

That environment is likely to keep risk management and working capital optimisation high on the agenda for both financial institutions and corporate treasurers.