George Leung, chief economist, Greater China at The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited comments:
In view of the faster pace of recovery in the domestic sector, in addition to the anticipated robust trade picture, there is a need to upgrade the growth forecast for Hong Kong GDP again. The revision made in early September raised the 2004 growth forecast from 1.3% to 4.2%. The revised forecasts for 2003 and 2004 are now as follows:
2003 Real GDP growth from 1.5% to 3.0%
2003 CPI inflation from -2.5% to -2.6%
2004 Real GDP growth from 4.2% to 6.5%
2004 CPI inflation at -0.8%, unchanged
HSBC expects to see stronger growth momentum in Hong Kong's domestic sector next year. The recent release of third quarter 2003 growth data already pointed to a rebound in private consumption, which is likely to be a driver of growth for the economy, together with robust trade.
