It is a strange, but well-established, fact that the number of firms going bust peaks during an economic recovery, rather than in the previous slump itself.
Companies may survive a downturn bumping along the bottom. But those in the worst shape cannot cope with recovery. They may lack working capital, or have shed so much labour that they cannot meet customers' orders when they start picking up, or have cut back on equipment and training to such an extent that they are no longer competitive.
So much for companies, but what about countries? They rarely go bust, of course. But the parallel with firms may still hold some truth. Economic performance varies enormously between countries and over time. Where stands Ireland Inc? By the same paradox, we may get a better idea when recovery is underway than we did during the downturn itself.
