Atradius: Signs of resilience amid economic jitters

New data from Atradius, one of the UK’s leading trade credit insurers, shows that insurance claims* rose in June, reversing the downward trend observed since the start of the year. Despite this uptick, several sectors are showing signs of recovery – highlighting the resilience of UK businesses amid ongoing economic uncertainty.

Claims rose notably in:
· Consumer durables – up 140 per cent YoY, or 5 per cent since January
· Electronics – up 72 per cent YoY, and a steep 138 per cent increase year-to-date
· Transport – up 41 per cent YoY, or 35 per cent since January
· Engineering – up 138 per cent YoY, though down 5 per cent year-to-date

The latest figures suggest that hopes for a smooth UK economic recovery may be premature, especially for sectors more exposed to consumer spending or global supply chain variability, with high-profile administrations such as Chapel Bank Engineering and Belmar Engineering pointing to pressure in mechanical and industrial sectors, in particular.

However, there are some encouraging signs. Atradius claims data shows that the food sector (down -34 per cent since January) and the construction industry (down -22 per cent since January) have both seen steady improvements since the start of the year – suggesting pockets of stability and resilience in demand, even in sectors that continue to face significant pressures.

James Burgess (pictured), Head of Commercial at Atradius UK, commented:
“While the rise in claims in June raises a flag, we’re also seeing encouraging signals in sectors like construction and food, which has long been under pressure. This speaks to the adaptability of UK businesses in navigating a complex economic environment.”

“For many, this is a pivotal moment – as the full impact of US tariff increases remains uncertain and businesses collectively hold their breath ahead of the UK’s Autumn Budget. In this climate, those that actively manage credit risk and stay agile in their operations are better positioned to navigate emerging challenges and seize opportunities in a potentially shifting recovery landscape.”

Atradius advises that now is the time for businesses to reassess financial risk, strengthen credit control processes, and ensure trade credit protection measures are in place to maintain stability in the months ahead.
Burgess continued, “There’s no question that June’s rise in claims marks a shift in momentum. But what’s striking is the divergence in sector performance. While consumer-facing industries are clearly under pressure, others are proving remarkably resilient.”

“It’s a reminder that while macroeconomic conditions are tough, not all businesses are being affected equally. There are still opportunities to grow – but only for those who are actively managing their credit risk and responding quickly to signs of customer distress.”

The increase in claims comes against a backdrop of stubborn inflation (currently at 3.6 per cent) and a base interest rate of 4.25 per cent, conditions which continue to strain margins, especially for SMEs. Although the Labour Government’s economic strategy has prioritised productivity and growth through public investment and skills, the cost of borrowing remains high, and supply chain disruptions continue to impact import-heavy sectors like electronics and transport.

Atradius notes that early warning signs of financial difficulty, such as late payments or sudden changes in customer ordering patterns, are becoming more common, making proactive credit management increasingly vital.

Burgess added, “This is a moment for measured caution, not panic. The businesses we see weathering the storm are those that are embedding credit controls into daily decision-making – using data, being vigilant, and protecting liquidity.”

*Atradius claims data referenced is year-on-year (YoY) and year-to-date (YTD) as of June 2025

About Atradius
Atradius is a global provider of credit insurance, bond and surety, collections and information services, with a strategic presence in over 50 countries. The products offered by Atradius protect companies around the world against the default risks associated with selling goods and services on credit. Atradius is a member of Grupo Catalana Occidente (GCO.MC), one of the largest insurers in Spain and one of the largest credit insurers in the world.