The Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought back significant headwinds to the global economic recovery and raised wider geopolitical risks. We have cut our global growth forecast to +3.3% in 2022 and +2.8% in 2023, revised on the downside by -0.8pp and -0.4pp respectively. The economic implications will be felt above all in Russia, which will plunge into a deep recession this year (at least -8%), especially after comprehensive sanctions have been extended to the energy sector. Almost two-thirds of our downward revision of global growth is due to confidence and supply chains shocks, with the remainder being attributable to higher commodity prices.
